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São Paulo / Brazil · CITY × MARKET

Financial inclusion
in São Paulo.

Build financial resilience around digital payments rather than treating account access as the finished outcome. The central bank's report examines both Pix inclusion and risks such as over-indebtedness and digital insecurity.

Joshua ArmahFounder · Pheonix Startups
PUBLIC DESK RESEARCH
14 October 2026 · Edition 01
PHEONIX
RESEARCH

THE IMPACT ATLAS · EDITION 01

A closer look.
A copy to keep.

YOUR FULL REPORTFinancial inclusion in São PauloJoshua Armah · Founder, Pheonix Startups

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THE PLACE BEHIND THE OPPORTUNITY

Our editorial thesis: practical impact opportunities lie in coordinating existing institutions and informal-to-formal economic activity. Define a municipal territory and buyer; prove reliability and income benefits before scaling.

São Paulo's current PlanClima portal distinguishes a municipal 2030 emissions reduction of 20% against 2017 from a 50% ambition requiring joint action with other city sectors. It seeks net-zero municipal-territory emissions by 2050. Those are different commitments, not interchangeable claims. Its summary of average 2010–2022 emissions assigns 60% to transport, 31% to stationary energy, and 9% to waste. Historical shares inform discovery, not present-day valuations.

Prefeitura de São PauloPrefeitura de São PauloSão Paulo Municipal Health SecretariatBanco Central do BrasilSão Paulo Economic Development and Labour SecretariatSP Regula / Prefeitura de São PauloUniversity of São Paulo / AUSPINSão Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)
01 / THE EVIDENCE, DRAWN TO SCALE

One place. A wider context.

São Paulo context sits beside the global signal. Different geographies and units remain separate.

REPORTED OBSERVATION
74%SHARE WITHIN THE SOURCE DEFINITION

Highlighted share · 100 units = the defined whole

Adults in CadÚnico with at least one registered Pix key; access differs from use

December 2023 data, 2025 report edition
Brazil nationally; not a São Paulo city estimate

Brazilian adults in CadÚnico with a registered Pix key; national access, not city use.

Banco Central do Brasil2025 edition; accessed 2026-10-14
SOURCE ESTIMATE
1.3bnSCALE OF THE REPORTED QUANTITY

Each block = 50 million adults

adults without a financial account

2024 survey; 2025 report
Global; adults aged 15+

Global adults without a financial account, based on the 2024 survey. National survey statistics are not city-level demand estimates.

World Bank16 July 2025; 2024 survey data

Visuals reproduce the cited signal, including its original scope. Rounded unit graphics are reading aids; the displayed figure and source definition govern the claim.

04 / FOLLOW THE SYSTEM

Where São Paulo can begin.

A proposed operating map for financial inclusion. Read the handoffs before choosing a product to build.

Finance
system
  1. 01

    Identify & onboard

  2. 02

    Move money safely

  3. 03

    Keep useful records

  4. 04

    Save & absorb shocks

  5. 05

    Resolve problems fairly

THE BUYER QUESTION

Merchant associations, responsible financial institutions, and business-support providers serving microentrepreneurs.

THE EXPERIMENT

Co-design a voluntary weekly cash-flow review with a small merchant group, using redacted exports rather than account credentials.

Read the complete value chain
  1. Identify and onboard
  2. Move money safely
  3. Keep useful records
  4. Save and absorb shocks
  5. Resolve problems fairly

Editorial system map derived from the research brief. The sequence is a framework for discovery, with no claim that a Pheonix programme, customer or pilot is operating.

Financial inclusionSDG 1 · 8 · 10

Build financial resilience around digital payments rather than treating account access as the finished outcome. The central bank's report examines both Pix inclusion and risks such as over-indebtedness and digital insecurity.

RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS · TO VALIDATE LOCALLY

The opportunity

Test simple reconciliation and cash-planning support for small merchants receiving Pix payments, with clear separation of household and business money. National research motivates local interviews; it does not establish city-level willingness to pay.

03 / PROPOSED IMPACT FRAMEWORK

Make the benefit testable.

An impact claim should survive a difficult question. Design the measurement before you design the success story.

  1. 01

    Establish the baseline

    Start in São Paulo. Define the people, geography and existing service before measuring a change.

  2. 02

    Run a bounded pilot

    Use the proposed experiment above as a starting question. Agree the local scope, duration, comparison and safeguards before beginning.

  3. 03

    Compare the outcome

    Ask what would have happened otherwise. Compare like with like and record how much uncertainty remains.

WHAT TO MEASURE

The outcome ledger

  • LOCAL OUTCOME MEASURE

    Reconciliation time, missed obligations, cash-buffer stability, fees, and merchant-reported understanding.

Keep the counter-evidence.

Avoid credit upselling, hidden charges, credential collection, and unsupported promises of income or lending eligibility.

Proposed measurement pathway. No baseline, pilot result, participant count or achieved impact is being reported in this diagram.

PUT IT IN PERSPECTIVE

The global market context.

The World Bank’s Global Findex 2025 draws on surveys of about 148,000 adults in 141 economies conducted in 2024. Its estimates are nationally representative, not observations of individual cities.World Bank

The World Bank reports 1.3 billion adults still without accounts and substantial gaps in safe digital access. Its release also highlights the need for consumer protection and secure payment infrastructure alongside account access.World Bank

Explore this market in all 12 cities
WHAT TO LEARN BEFORE BUILDING
  1. Which existing cost or uncertainty will disappear?
  2. What happens when a payment fails?
  3. Can excluded users access an assisted or offline route?

Follow the evidence.

Publication dates and geographic scope are shown for each source. Linked institutions are references, with no affiliation or endorsement implied.

  1. 01
    PlanClima SP: targets, sectors, and implementation

    Prefeitura de São Paulo · Undated current portal; accessed 2026-10-14

    São Paulo municipality; 2010–2022 average emissions shares and 2030/2050 targets
  2. 02
    Ligue os Pontos connects agricultural production with the urban economy

    Prefeitura de São Paulo · 2020-03-02

    São Paulo municipality, especially its rural south; historical programme account
  3. 03
    Unidades Básicas de Saúde (UBS)

    São Paulo Municipal Health Secretariat · Updated 2026-09-22

    Municipal primary-care services within Brazil's SUS
  4. 04
    Relatório de Cidadania Financeira 2025

    Banco Central do Brasil · 2025 edition; accessed 2026-10-14

    Brazil nationally; cited Pix analysis uses December 2023 CadÚnico data, not city estimates
  5. 05
    O Cate: public employment and entrepreneurship services

    São Paulo Economic Development and Labour Secretariat · Undated; accessed 2026-10-14

    São Paulo municipal worker and microenterprise services
  6. 06
    Coleta Domiciliar Seletiva

    SP Regula / Prefeitura de São Paulo · Updated 2026-04-27

    São Paulo municipal selective-collection programme and accredited cooperatives
  7. 07
    Hub USPInovação

    University of São Paulo / AUSPIN · Undated; accessed 2026-10-14

    University innovation resources across USP campuses
  8. 08
    PIPE: Pesquisa Inovativa em Pequenas Empresas

    São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) · Undated current programme page; accessed 2026-10-14

    Eligible companies in São Paulo state; competitive research support
  9. 09
    The Global Findex Database 2025 — Report and survey scope

    World Bank · 2025; nationally representative 2024 surveys

    141 economies
  10. 10
    Mobile-Phone Technology Powers Saving Surge in Developing Economies

    World Bank · 16 July 2025; 2024 survey data

    Global / developing economies
Continue with all six markets in São Paulo

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